Benny Parsons

After a couple of second-place finishes last year at Talladega Superspeedway, Tony Stewart is my pick to finally break through and win at the 2.66-mile Alabama track on Sunday in the ninth race of the Nextel Cup season.

Working in Stewart's favor
The two-time and reigning Nextel Cup champion has never won a Cup event at Talladega, but he has finished runner-up five times in 14 races. And Stewart is a force to be reckoned with at restrictor-plate tracks.

In last year's four restrictor-plate events (two at Daytona and two at Talladega), Stewart led 325 of 747 laps and posted results of seventh, second, first and second for an average finish of third.

His win came at Daytona in July, when he started from the pole and dominated, leading 151 of 160 laps, which was a race record.

At Talladega last year, the spring race was a wreckfest, but Stewart's car was one of a handful of cars to avoid getting damaged. Still, even with Michael Waltrip teaming with him in a nose-to-tail effort, Stewart didn't have enough speed to win, and he settled for second place behind Jeff Gordon.

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In the fall, Dale Jarrett managed to get by Stewart on the last lap for the lead, and then a wreck by Kyle Petty brought out a caution and ended the race. That was tough to take for Stewart, who led the most laps and managed to make such a strong bid for the win despite dealing with overheating problems.

The chassis Stewart will use at Talladega should give him a solid shot at reaching Victory Lane. Chassis No. 70 is the one that got Stewart his first restrictor-plate win last July at Daytona, and it also was strong in the fall Talladega race, qualifying fourth and leading 11 times for a race-high 65 laps before coming home second.

This year Chassis 70 led 15 laps in the Gatorade Duel at Daytona before finishing fifth. In the Daytona 500, it led 20 laps and posted a fifth-place finish.

Other drivers to watch
I expect the Hendrick Motorsports cars to run very well, and Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson could both make strong bids at winning Sunday's race.

When it comes to racing at restrictor-plate tracks, Gordon is one of the best. If the four-time Cup champion wins on Sunday, it will be his fifth victory in the past eight Cup series restrictor-plate races.

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With 10 career wins at Talladega and Daytona combined, Gordon can tie the late Dale Earnhardt Sr. for the most restrictor-plate victories if he is first across the checkers on Sunday.

Sitting second in the championship points standings, Johnson will be making his eighth Cup start at Talladega. Johnson does have two Talladega poles to his credit. His best finish at this track was fourth in the spring race of 2004. Overall in eight previous Talladega races, Johnson has just one top-five and two top-10s.

Johnson won this year's Daytona 500, the first restrictor-plate race of the season, but by rule, that car remains on display at Daytona USA in Daytona, Fla., and will not be raced again this season.

Like Hendrick Motorsports, Dale Earnhardt Inc. has made a major commitment to winning at restrictor-plate tracks. That explains why DEI driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. has five wins and two runner-up finishes in his last nine Talladega races.

Junior has won more Nextel Cup races at Talladega (5) than at any other track. And his five victories at the Alabama superspeedway are the most of any active driver. He also ranks second on the track’s all-time wins chart behind his father, Dale Earnhardt, who won 10 times in 44 starts.