That fancy breeding and solid trainer Todd Pletcher has elevated his status throughout the campaign. That bubble burst when he finished 21 lengths in arrears of Sinister Minister at 9-5 in the Blue Grass. Pletcher has replaced his injured "go-to" rider John Velazquez with Ramon Dominguez. If you toss out that Keeneland race, he cannot be eliminated from consideration.

If the race falls apart the way it did in 2005, Steppenwolfer could pull off a Giacomo and pick up the pieces. This is a grinder extraordinaire, a style that should play well considering the expected hot pace. But Lawyer Ron beat him three straight times in Arkansas and his overall speed figures don't appear competitive.

But Steppenwolfer, named after a rock group, could give a "Magic Carpet Ride" to underrated jockey Robby Albarado. Students of pace and lovers of the trifectas and superfectas might consider using this horse in "under" positions: 2 or 3 in the tris and 2, 3 or 4 in the supers at boxcar odds. He could suck up for a secondary prize, passing exhausted early battlers.

Conversely, Keyed Entry has a solid series of positive speed figures and could pull off an upset at a price. His problem is one of style: another speedball in a gate full of front-runners. Pletcher shrewdly hired Patrick Valenzuela, maybe the best pace-pushing jock in the land.

Keyed Entry did fade to third behind Bob and John in the Wood Memorial, but carved out solid early fractions in the process. However, it won't get easier in the Derby for any colt on or near the lead. Pletcher is 0-for-12 in the Run for the Roses but is due to bust down the door any year now.

Owners Roy and Gretchen Jackson not only have Barbero, but talented and inexperienced Showing Up. If he scores an upset, it will throw all of the Derby minutia-historical-razzmatazz into chaos. No starts at 2 years of age, not enough preps, just three lifetime starts, blah, blah, blah.

The talented neophyte did suffer a minor puncture wound in an impressive triumph in the Lexington at Keenland but appears to have recovered. Normally cautious conditioner Barclay Tagg of Funny Cide fame is pushing this case forward, a sure sign he likes what he sees in Showing Up.

Baffert’s third entry is Point Determined, son of the emerging young sire Point Given. Like A.P. Warrior, he’s spent most of the spring looking at the rear end of Brother Derek in key California preps. With solid bloodlines, this is another horse that could hit the board with a patient, well-timed move, and flashy newcomer Rafael Bejarano is just the jock to pull it off. This rider has impressed the industry with his uncanny ability to fire with perfectly timed moves, as he so artfully demonstrated when potting five in a row on the Santa Anita Derby day undercard.

Baffert is hoping for better luck with his three entries than poor Nick Zito had last year with his five, all of whom finished out of the money.

Trainer Jerry Hollandorfer and jockey Russell Baze dominate Bay Area racing but rarely make a splash nationally. This year, the pair believe they have Cause to Believe. He has a similar M.O. as Steppenwolfer — an off-the-pace type that needs a breakneck pace and thus could well be used in those tris and supers.  He sold as a yearling for $50k and was resold as a two-year-old for less cash — $30k, the kiss of death for 98 percent of such horses. But Hollandorfer doesn’t run for his health or ego, so beware of him pulling off a Giacomo as well.

Trainer Tom Albertrani wins lots of races with fairly limited stock, so his fans will be taking a long look at Deputy Glitters. After upsetting Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby, Glitters was no factor against Bob and John in the Wood, finishing 15 lengths back. Spin doctors might point to the sloppy strip that day; others may cite what looked like a sure-fire “bounce”, after the big Tampa number. Jose Lezcano, 21, will make his Derby debut on this big longshot.

With Bluegrass Cat and First Samurai running poorly in the Blue Grass, somebody had to come sucking up for second money and that was Storm Treasure. Placing behind runaway winner Sinister Minister earned him enough graded earnings for a trip to Louisville, but there is not too much to recommend with this one. This horse was soundly thrashed by Deputy Glitters by 17 lengths at Tampa Bay and seems well worthy of 50-1 or higher odds at Churchill Downs.

Those who saw the Wood couldn't miss the late charge of Jazil. While visually impressive, the fact is winner Bob and John had to stagger home after attending the hot pace of Keyed Entry, so in my mind Jazil's run should be devalued.

But the breeding is stout (Seeking the Gold out of a Deputy Minister mare), the trainer is solid (Kiaran Mclaughlin), and despite a rookie jockey in Fernando Jara, the owners — Shadwell Stables — have won prestigious races around the world. But I do not believe Jazil in the Kentucky Derby will be one of them.

On my Derby line, Seaside Retreat is listed at 100-1. A sixth-place finisher (33 lengths back) in the Blue Grass and fifth place (12) in the Tampa Bay, it is impossible to make any case for this horse. This is not meant to disrespect our neighbors north of the border — trainer Mark Casse and jockey Patrick Husbands are solid Canadian connection — but sorry, this horse simply does not belong.

As for the lucky 20th horse to make the field, Sunriver has a solid edge over Mister Triester, Flashy Bull, and Sacred Light, but would be a shocker to win the Derby.

All in all, this shapes up as a classic with the usual variety of running styles and an inordinate number of interesting storylines. It is a Derby of newcomers with veterans like Wayne Lukas and Nick Zito on the sidelines and Hall of Fame riders like Gary Stevens and Jerry Bailey retired to TV booths. Methinks the winner will have to be very good and very lucky to negotiate through the bulky field.

Happy Derby.

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