COMMENTARY

By Ken Rosenthal

updated 5:46 p.m. ET March 30, 2006

Ken Rosenthal

This probably will be my dumbest column of the year, and I say probably to allow for some future knuckleheaded analysis that may fly off my fingers on a moment's notice.

A column predicting the next World Series champion ensures that the writer will
A) embarrass himself or herself
B) anger entire urban populations and
C) receive threatening, condescending e-mails for the rest of his or her sorry days.

This year, I'm taking a completely different approach, if only to placate Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi, who keeps reminding me, with only some exaggeration, that I haven't liked any of his offseason moves.

Congratulations, J.P.: You're going to win the World Series.

Given the parity in the sport — and the unpredictability that produced titles for the Angels in 2002, the Marlins in '03 and the White Sox in '05 — I'm going against my instincts, figuring I can't do worse.

Also, I want to be accused, just once, of pro-Canadian bias.

A year ago, I disapproved of the White Sox's offseason, failing to grasp that their change in philosophy was less a bow to small ball than a shift to a traditional pitching-and-defense approach.

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Eureka! The White Sox won it all, and a panel of Sporting News editors is picking them to repeat.

But I'm saying it's the Jays' turn to defy their skeptics, and truth be told, my concern about their offseason spending is more long term.

Hey, it's not as if I'm picking the Marlins, Royals or, heaven forbid, the noble, star-crossed Braves. In fact, the Jays might be uniquely positioned to take advantage of the Yankees' and Red Sox's perceived vulnerabilities. At least that's the idea.

Granted, I'd feel better about the Jays if their infield defense weren't already an industry punch line, but I'm diving headfirst into the prediction haystack, hoping to find the proverbial needle — and that it doesn't puncture my eye.

One beauty of baseball is that you can't predict it. Things change, especially at the July 31 non-waiver deadline. The hottest team at the time wins the postseason. Right now, on paper, the A's look like the best club, particularly if Frank Thomas is healthy enough to make 450 plate appearances as their DH. But the Angels, too, are very good, as are the Yankees, Red Sox and White Sox.

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In picking the Jays, I'm assuming nearly everything will go right for them, just as it did for the White Sox last season.

That means right-hander A.J. Burnett must stay healthy (he's already hurt, by the way) and prove a worthy complement to righthander Roy Halladay. It means that closer B.J. Ryan must handle the increased expectations that come with being a big-money closer. And it means that the team's new regulars — third baseman Troy Glaus, first baseman Lyle Overbay and catcher Bengie Molina — must transform the offense into an AL East behemoth.

Stranger things have happened.

A Jays title might unhinge commissioner Bud Selig as much as a Barry Bonds milestone, seeing as how the Jays, among their other excesses, spent $102 million on Burnett and Ryan alone.

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But the revival of baseball in Toronto, one of the game's best markets before the strike of 1994 and '95, would be worth the sacrifice.

Now, don't ask me which National League patsy the Jays will play in the Series; that's like asking which school is going to win the NIT. As the Jays' Ricciardi jokes, "Our RPI is stronger playing in the American League."

Here's one for the Canadian mid-major: See you in October, J.P.

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