Bob Neumeier

Is it financially safer to toss cash out of your bedroom window and hope a wind blows some of the money back in or bet one of the three Kentucky Derby future pools? Although it is risky business, that did not stop the speculators from wagering $464,236 into the second of the three pools over the first weekend in March.

To succeed in this venture, a number of positive events must come to pass: Your horse must be healthy enough and have enough career earnings to even get into the starting gate. The selection must win the toughest race to handicap in the land. And finally, he has to pay odds that are greater than those that your horse will actually go postward in the Derby.

Who has that crisp a crystal ball?

Bottom line: it is the ultimate crapshoot but if you are lucky or shrewd enough to hold a future ticket at 30-1 and your steed walks into the starting gate at 5-1, that’s an excellent investment, win or lose.

But in many ways, horses are like companies on Wall Street. Values shift from race to race, from day to day. What looks like a bargain on March 1 can be a throwaway two weeks later. Even the “all other 3-year-olds” category, which went off as the favorite in Pool 2 at 3-1 is no bargain for my money, not with 23 other horses listed in the field that could knock me out.

So let us analyze the 23 wagering interests that were listed in Pool 2 (Barbican was deleted because of injury) on March 5 and see which “stocks” are “live” and headed in the right direction and which have tumbled in value based on recent races. We will list excellent, fair, and poor values at this time as compared to their actual future pool odds some three weeks ago.

Poor or fair outlook
Horse                   Odds          Value         Comment
Achilles of Troy      15-1         Poor        Vanned off after Gotham
Bluegrass Cat          11-1         Poor         Very slow speed figs
Private Vow             13-1        Poor         Bad comeback in Rebel
Barbaro                    15-1         Fair          Fla. Derby looming
Bob and John           19-1         Fair          So-so in San Felipe
Brother Derek           10-1        Fair           SA Derby will tell
Corinthian                 15-1        Fair          Too many issues
First Samurai            16-1         Fair          10 furlongs? Uh-uh
Steppenwolfer           24-1        Fair           Just OK in Rebel
Strong Contender      17-1        Fair           Lots of upside

In most of the cases I rated as excellent value, it is simply because of blockbuster odds and is not necessarily a reflection of their current form. But 3-year-olds are fully capable of significant improvement almost overnight, so big odds can give you a big chance.

Excellent or unknown
Cause to Believe       32-1        Excellent   Superb NorCal trainer
Flashy Bull                32-1        Excellent   Hard-trier
Keyed Entry               21-1        Excellent  Speedball plus
Lawyer Ron               17-1        Excellent   Will be 10-1 in big one
My Golden Song        63-1        Excellent   Pletcher at 63-1?
Noonmark                  97-1        Excellent    $200 to win … Nice
Point Determined        29-1        Excellent   Baffert at 29-1?
Sweetnorthernsaint     30-1        Excellent   Third in Gotham
Great Point                  28-1            ?         Insufficient Info
Itsallaboutthechase      95-1            ?             (ditto)      
Latent Heat                  51-1           ?            (ditto)
Really Indian               54-1             ?            (ditto)

If you backed the “field” or “all other 3 year-olds” and are happy with 3-1 (only a fair value at best), you are riding with the likes of the previously unlisted A.P. Warrior, Racketeer, Deputy Glitters, Like Now, Sacred Light, Discreet Cat, Sunriver, and Sharp Humor.

With a number of key Derby preps yet to be contested, it is automatic that this list will change dramatically in the next few weeks. Churchill Downs will offer a final “future” pool and you will have a chance to join the party.

Tread carefully.

As for me, I would lean to the hope-the-wind-blows-my-cash-back-into-my-room theory rather than invest in the high-risk, high-reward futures.

I’ll take my chances on Derby Day.

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