Ray Glier

One last word before the Madness begins.

Syracuse should have opened your eyes. No, not as a title contender, but what can happen in a tournament. The Orange got hot at the right moment and won the Big East Tournament. It was chemistry.

Who is going to get hot right now? Ohio State and its 3-point shooters? Memphis and its slashers? There is going to be a team that starts rolling the rock downhill and it doesn’t stop until it gets a place in the Final Four.

It can be all about Mo.

Q: Why isn’t anyone picking Memphis? Seems like all I ever read about or see on the TV is that the Tigers just aren’t good enough to make the Final Four. That’s crazy. They have as much talent as anyone in the country.
— Mark Goodison, Evansville, Ind.

A: The Tigers have talent; that is not the issue. It is all the freshmen, five of them in key roles, that is giving some people pause. Experience can be a key thing in the NCAA Tournament, especially when it comes to shot selection in a tight game.

There are two sure first-round picks in the lineup, Rodney Carney and Shawne Williams. This is also a team that scored 88 points against UCLA. They attack the lane with slashers and are a bruising team on the boards.

Memphis may be getting overlooked because of the depth of the field. UConn, Duke, Texas, Villanova, Ohio State, Boston College, Kansas, UCLA. The list of final four contenders is longer than last year.

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I have a feeling a lot of people, including me, are going to be looking back and saying “Why didn’t I see these guys coming?”

Q: What SEC team is more likely to make a Final Four run: Florida or Tennessee?
— Noel, Atlanta

A: They win two and then drop out, both of them. Same with LSU.

Tennessee’s stuff is all over chalk boards and has been dissected on film. The Vols routinely harassed teams with pressure, but over a long season some of those Pearls of defense have been figured out. Tennessee has hit a wall with its legs, but more important, teams in the SEC, especially the second time around, knew what to expect.

But the Vols won't lose to Winthrop, who will give up points to a terrific shooter in Chris Lofton. Even bigger is Tennessee’s anticipation of this game. The Vols have been dogged this week and called upset meat. They win the first round and again in the second round.

Florida has some issues when the game gets into a slower tempo. It’s exactly what happened against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament final. The pace slowed and Florida tried to pound the ball inside and committed a lot of turnovers.

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In transition, and with their bigs running and getting position, Florida is really good. Joakim Noah is a mismatch and scores off layups, curls, run-outs.

But in a half-court game, point guard Taurean Green does not handle as well. He is confident and effective with a brisk pace, but in half-court with hands slapping at him, he is off, as are most sophomore point guards.

The other thing about Florida is the Gators really only play seven guys, and guard Lee Humphrey has, essentially, a separated shoulder. The ligaments are damaged and it will not get better until the end of the season. Their depth is not as good as advertised.

Tennessee wins two and gets to D.C. and loses to Michigan State. Florida gets to Minneapolis and loses to Ohio State, 80-76.

I like LSU because Glen Davis might be getting this double-team business figured out in the post. Watch early and see how Iona attacks Davis. Will the Gaels attack him after he gets the ball, or right when he starts his move? Will they bring help behind him or down on him? If Davis sees the floor well, Iona is cooked.

LSU is hungry for this. Rather, John Brady is hungry for this. He kept Tyrus Thomas out of the SEC Tournament because Brady said his constituents want some wins in the NCAA Tournament. They want these terrific regular seasons backed up by wins in the postseason.

LSU wins two games and gets Duke in a Sweet 16 game. It can win if Tyrus Thomas is healthy and playing well. Of the three top SEC teams in the tournament, the Tigers have the most potential.

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