INDIANAPOLIS - Colts president Bill Polian is gambling with Edgerrin James.

Yes, he wants the two-time rushing champ carrying the ball for Indianapolis next season, but as James prepares for free agency, Polian is hoping salary-cap restrictions will help keep James from leaving.

Still, Polian believes there is a “50-50” chance of James coming back to Indy. Polian hopes to increase his odds this week when he calls Drew Rosenhaus, James’ agent.

“I’m going to talk to Drew this week and see where Edge is right now, so I’d say it’s probably 50-50,” Polian said. “But that’s an uneducated guess because I haven’t spoken with Drew.”

The top backs expected to become free agents aside from James are MVP Shaun Alexander and Jamal Lewis, who helped lead Baltimore to a Super Bowl title.

Polian could have kept James by using the franchise tag on him for the second straight year after receiver Reggie Wayne agreed to a new six-year, $39 million contract. The Colts also signed defensive lineman Raheem Brock to a five-year deal Friday.

Instead, Polian, decided against using the tag, which would have increased James’ salary next season to more than $10 million.

That means James, a four-time Pro Bowl choice, would be one of the most attractive free agents available when the market opens Friday.

“Reggie was priority No. 1, and Raheem was priority No. 2,” Polian said. “Now we can turn our attention to Edgerrin and David Thornton and see what we can do.”

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Thornton, a starting linebacker, is one of 11 unrestricted free agents on the Colts’ roster.

James has said he believes his tenure in Indianapolis is over. At the Super Bowl, he said he hoped to play for a team that wanted him.

James holds Colts’ franchise records for attempts (2,188), yards (9,226) and touchdowns (64). Indianapolis has reached the playoffs six times in James’ seven seasons, missing the postseason in 2001 when James sat out the final 10 games after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.

While they want him back, it appears the Colts are preparing for life without James.

Polian and coach Tony Dungy both acknowledged they would be looking closely at the top running backs in this year’s draft for a possible replacement. Dungy also suggested signing a free agent was an option.

“There’s a lot of guys that can run and do well,” Dungy said. “But with so many checks at the line of scrimmage and not knowing what play you’re going to run and still respond, that’s what you don’t know.”

James has been a key blocker and receiver for two-time MVP Peyton Manning.

But James might not be the only Pro Bowl player leaving Indy.

Polian said it was likely Mike Vanderjagt, the NFL’s most accurate kicker, would sign with another team. Vanderjagt missed a 46-yard field goal in January’s playoff game against Pittsburgh that cost the Colts a chance to force overtime.

“He’ll probably elect to go somewhere else, so that’s probably a position we’ll have to fill,” Polian said.

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He said Vanderjagt’s replacement may already be on the roster. Indy recently re-signed kicker Dave Rayner, a sixth-round draft pick last year who was cut late in the season because of his poor kickoffs.

The other big names on the Colts’ free agent list are Thornton and defensive tackle Larry Tripplett, a second-round pick in 2002 who had his best season as pro in 2005.

But most of the talk has been about James. Polian and Dungy hope their gamble pays off.