In arms race, Yankees looking overmatched
N.Y. staff will be improved over last season, but not by much
Brian Bahr / Getty Images fileReliever Kyle Farnsworth surprised many by choosing a setup role with the Yankees over a closer role with the Braves. But can Farnsworth handle the scrutiny of New York, NBCSports.com columnist Tony DeMarco wonders.
Q: What if Pedro Martinez struggles this season due to injury? Where does that leave the Mets? Can they still finish on top of the NL East and make it to the playoffs with young pitching, or would there be a trade for a quality starter?
— Scott Naylor, Charleston, S.C.
A: That is a legitimate concern, Scott, as early reports from Mets camp are that Martinez still is having trouble with his right big toe — even after a winter of rest and rehab, as well as getting a specially made shoe built to ease stress as he plants in his delivery. There is enough concern that Martinez probably will pull out of at least the first round of the World Baseball Classic, and that’s not a great sign for Mets fans. That’s a big reason I was critical of the Kris Benson trade in the wake of also dealing away Jae Seo. That has left the Mets with only five starting pitchers, and that’s including Aaron Heilman, who is making the move from the bullpen. In addition, Tom Glavine turns 40, Steve Trachsel pitched only 37 innings last season and Victor Zambrano is no lock to win the fifth spot. Last season, they had Seo to turn to when they finally gave up on Kaz Ishii. This year, there are only young and inexperienced options such as Cuban defector Alay Soler. For the time being, I’m still sticking with the Mets to win the wild card. But if Martinez is out for an extended period of time, it’s going to be tough for them to get to the playoffs.
Q: Hey, Tony, I am an avid Cincinnati Reds fan. We are getting new management, but I am still not very confident in them putting together a playoff-caliber team. How long and what do they have to do to get back to the playoffs? Maybe I shouldn’t get my hopes too high until Ken Griffey Jr. is gone?
— Mike Kill, St. Marys, Ohio
A: It’s not going to be easy, Mike, and it’s going to take a few years even if things go right. The change in ownership to Robert Castellini should be beneficial, as he appears to be very aggressive and willing to raise the payroll. That said, the Reds are going to remain a small-to-mid-revenue franchise, and that means they must rely on scouting and development to produce talent from within — much like the Indians, Twins and A’s. As you probably know, that hasn’t exactly been a Reds’ strength in recent years — ever since Marge Schott did so much damage by cutting spending and forcing an exodus of personnel. That began to change under former general manager Dan O’Brien, and it will continue under new GM Wayne Krivsky, who has extensive background in scouting and development in his years with the Rangers and Twins. Looking at the big-league roster in the short-term, Krivsky also is a pitching-and-defense guy, so you can look for him to trade a hitter — Griffey, Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn — for some pitching, most likely the best starting pitcher he can get.
Q: I think the Brewers will shock the baseball world and win the NL Central, and Ben Sheets will be the Cy Young Award winner. What do you think the odds of that prediction coming true?
— Jeremy Ault, Phoenix
A: I’d say the odds are steep, Jeremy — specifically, about 7-to-1 according to one offshore betting Web site I checked, as opposed to St. Louis being a prohibitive 2-to-5 division-title favorite. But your optimism isn’t without merit. Many baseball writers are tabbing the Brewers as their NL surprise team, and in my spring preview, I have them winning 84 games to finish above the .500 mark for the first time since 1992. Sheets is a key, obviously, as he made only 22 starts and pitched 156.1 innings last season due to problems with a lat muscle behind his shoulder. If he breaks through and wins a Cy Young Award — not out of the realm of possibility by any means — the Brew Crew could win around 90 games. Other keys factors are if Derrick Turnbow, Chris Capuano and Brady Clark can match their 2005 breakthroughs, and if Dan Kolb can recapture his 2004 effectiveness under pitching coach Mike Maddux. But as promising as Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy are, it’s very difficult for a team to get to the playoffs while breaking in three young players on the infield. Just as last year’s Minnesota Twins. I see more improvement, but no playoffs just yet.
Q: I think the Braves should go after Sammy Sosa. The trick is to get him cheap and turn him around. If anyone can rehabilitate and rejuvenate him, the Braves can. Do you agree?
— Tim Vaughn, Buchanan, Ga.
A: I can’t say that I agree, Tim. First and foremost, I just don’t think Sammy has much, if anything, left in the tank. Since the 2004 All-Star break, he has been a .226 hitter who has struck out once every four at-bats, and everybody knows how much his defense has slipped in recent years. On top of that, he has been extremely injury prone, with back, hip, biceps and foot injuries over the past two seasons. He was a shell of his former self last season in Baltimore, with a noticeably thinner body, and there is no reason to believe that at 37 he can reverse a five-year downward trend in performance. The Braves certainly have had their share of unlikely success stories such as Julio Franco. But their ultra-professional, team-first atmosphere wouldn’t be a good fit for Sammy and his entourage. I don’t see it happening, and I think Sammy is finished.
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