Eric Gay / AP

U.S. skater Johnny Weir is consoled by coach Priscilla Hill after his performance in the finals of the men's free skate. Weir placed fifth in the overall event which was won by Russia's Evgeni Plushenko.

When the athletes get here, they have just two choices: win or fail. It’s no longer about doing one’s best, but about winning gold — or at least silver or bronze.

The problem is we’re talking about sports, and if we should have learned anything in more than a century of serious competition, it’s that no prediction in sports is worth even as much as a ten-day weather forecast.

In our obsession over our own heroes, we forget that there are other heroes on other teams who also want to win. We forget that just because we say someone should win doesn’t mean that he or she will win.

It’s far easier to beat the loser over the head with a two-by-four. Sometimes, it’s merited. Bode Miller didn’t put in the work before the Olympics to give himself the best chance of success at the games. But he’s still got three events that he could do well in. Jeremy Bloom, the moguls favorite, put in the work, but made a small mistake that led to bigger ones – a bad day. Michelle Kwan never should have been touted as a candidate to win anything except sympathy.

And now there’s Johnny Weir, who didn’t come here burdened by pre-Games hype. He wasn’t the person most likely to win a medal, but the person most likely to make a really bizarre fashion statement and maybe say something that would end up as the sound bite heard round the world.

Then he skated the short program of his life and ended up in second place heading into the long program. Suddenly, he wasn’t just a big personality but a contender.

That much was true enough. And if he could have just skated a decent program, he would have had it.

Life doesn’t give anyone many chances to really do something that will be remembered in a good way for a long time. Johnny Weir had one of those chances laid at his feet, and he simply wasn’t ready to grab it.

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Weir had everything to lose, and he couldn’t deal with it. That doesn’t make him a bad person. But it isn’t going to get him on Letterman. Not now and probably not ever.

The bus has left, and Weir wasn’t on it.