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Red Sox hopes rest on many ifs

Questionable pitching, new infield, center fielder make team uneasy

Image: Jonathan PapelbonGetty Images file
Jonathan Papelbon will be key to the Red Sox's success this season, either in the starting rotation, or, more likely, in the bullpen, writes NBCSports.com columnist Ron Borges.

Time will tell on all this and as is often the case, pitching may decide all these questions because if it's good enough, a reduced offense won't matter and improved defense will. Yet questions abound there, too.

Can slimmed-down but 39-year-old Curt Schilling return to his form of two years ago? If he does, the Sox have their ace, but who returns to their form at 39 after an injury-plagued season a year earlier? Not many starting pitchers. Only one in the last 25 years — Jamie Moyer — won 20 games at 39 or older. So if Schilling does bounce back, how high will it be?

Whether he does or not, much has also been invested in 25-year-old Josh Beckett. Beckett has all the tools, but he's also had health problems and has been consistent in only one thing — not winning. Beckett won more than nine games only once in his career and his right shoulder is problematic, so what can he really be counted on to produce? Wins or heartache?

Beckett's right shoulder was enough of a concern that one Red Sox front-office executive urged the team to cancel the trade with the Marlins after an MRI revealed more damage than first thought. But the exec was overruled because Beckett is 25 and has unbridled potential ... if his arm holds up.

Beckett throws hard and fast, but he will have to throw often. David Wells and his 15 wins will not likely be back for long and who knows how many more years Tim Wakefield can keep making opponents knuckle under? So what we have here, it seems, is a team of question marks.

If Jonathan Papelbon blossoms, either in the starting rotation or more likely in the bullpen, all could be well with Boston's corner of the baseball world. At least it will be as long as Schilling has something left and Beckett has a live arm and closer Keith Foulke is recovered from both double knee surgery and a mental meltdown that ended his season prematurely last year after he had posted a 5.91 ERA, next to last among American League relievers.

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If Foulke isn't somewhere near his old self ,the Sox could turn to Papelbon or Mike Timlin except that Timlin is 40 and the track record for 40-year-old closers is about on par with that of 39-year-old starting pitchers. Which brings us back to one of the keys to this season — Papelbon. The rest of the bullpen has been upgraded because middle relief was a problem last season (the bullpen had the worst ERA in the American League) but what good does it do to get to the closer if he can't close?

If everything works out, however, the Sox will contend again in the American League East. But the Yankees figure to have a more explosive everyday lineup and the Blue Jays may be ready to challenge both of them after several years of rebuilding. In a best-case scenario for the Sox, Crisp takes to his new position in center field (he was moved to left last year by the Indians), the rebuilt infield fields better and hits as well as the one of a year ago, Manny is still Manny, Ortiz continues swinging one of the best clutch bats in the game and catcher Jason Varitek remains arguably the best combination of catcher/hitter in the American League.

As for the pitching, if Schilling bounces back and Beckett's arm holds up and Foulke pitches like the guy who dominated the World Series two years ago, the Sox will be in the heat of the pennant race when the shadows begin to lengthen next fall.

Then again, that's a lot of ifs. If it's too many there'll be no ifs, ands or buts about how it happened. It happened because Epstein won his battle with Lucchino. He wanted to build for the future in a town where, when it comes to baseball, the future is always now.

Ron Borges writes regularly for NBCSports.com and covers the NFL and boxing for the Boston Globe.


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