The result has been improvement across the board in almost every sport. The Alpine ski team, in particular, is the strongest America has ever fielded. Seven separate Americans have had podium finishes – either first, second or third – in World Cup races this season. Bode Miller is a threat to medal in five disciplines. Daron Rahlves is superb in the downhill and a threat in the super-G. In 2002, the United States won just two skiing medals. This year, it will be almost impossible not to do better.

In addition, the Olympics has added sports in which the United States excels, namely snowboarding, freestyle skiing, short-track speedskating and women’s hockey. The United States will never fall back to the levels of 1998 and 1992 if only because there are more medals to win in more sports that Americans are good at.

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So I’d expect the team to do pretty much as well as it did four years ago. If there’s a fall-off, it shouldn’t be drastic.

That said, it’s important to understand that predicting the outcome of sporting events is hardly a science. And few things are as unpredictable as the Winter Games, which are played out on nature’s slickest surfaces.

The difference between first and second in luge, bobsled, skeleton, speedskating and Alpine skiing can be as little as a hundredth of a second, and all it takes to create that sliver of distance is one tiny bobble or wobble, a gate taken an inch too wide, a turn entered a centimeter too high. The difference between third and fourth can be as tiny as that between first and second.

If everything goes perfectly for its team and less than perfectly for the opposition, the United States could surpass its record of 34 medals harvested in Salt Lake City. Reverse that equation, and the number could be just 20.

Slide show   Week in Sports Pictures Flying on the hardwood, racing on the rink, getting physical on the gridiron, and much more. more photos

It’s more likely that the breaks will even out for everyone. Miller and speedskaters Chad Hedrick probably won’t win five golds each – that’s a very tall order. But Hedrick will win three or four medals of various colors and Miller should take a couple. Similarly, the U.S. snowboarders may not sweep the halfpipe, but they will win multiple medals.

And somewhere during these games, someone we never even thought of in a sport to which we pay little attention, will rise to the occasion. If there’s one thing that’s certain in the Olympics, it’s that there will be at least one major surprise, not just for the United States, but for every major winter sports power.

That’s right, I just used “United States” and “winter sports power” in the same sentence. The American team catapulted itself into that elite group in 2002. This year, it intends to stay there.

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