Above all, the Patriots are competent.  They’re exact, precise and efficient – usually. This season wasn’t their finest. Next year they will be more like the franchise that won three of the previous four Super Bowls.

As for their competition, well, it won’t be an easy road, of course. In the AFC, the Steelers will be back in the hunt. They have an excellent team now, and they’ll have an excellent team a year from now. Key young players such as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu and Willie Parker will be that much more experienced.

But it’s hard to manufacture desire. The Steelers were ravenous this season once the playoffs arrived. Yet a load of success has a way of dulling a team’s competitive edge, especially when it is assaulted by wannabees like Cincinnati, Miami, Indianapolis, Denver and possibly San Diego, Kansas City and Jacksonville. If players don’t exactly get fat and lazy after reaching the Super Bowl, they at least get more comfortable than they had been.

The Bengals could be in contention next year, but there’s no guarantee Carson Palmer will be right after suffering a devastating knee injury in the playoff game against Pittsburgh. If Palmer doesn’t completely recover from reconstructive surgery, the Bengals won’t be nearly as dangerous on offense under Jon Kitna or whomever else they get to replace him. On top of that, the Bengals need a lot of improvement defensively before they’re a Super Bowl-caliber team.

The Colts are the other obvious choice to come out of the AFC, but they have a maddening tendency to crumble come playoff time. They appear to be regular-season wonders, and unless the franchise does a roster overhaul and brings in some players with muscle and mean streaks – especially on both sides of the line of scrimmage – they’ll again have a glowing record followed by an ignominious exit.

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The Broncos, Dolphins, Chiefs and Jaguars seem unlikely to produce the team-wide mettle necessary to compete with New England and Pittsburgh, although the Chargers are a talented and mysterious wild card who could catapult to prominence in 2006.

On the NFC side, the Seahawks could conceivably repeat, although it’s more likely that Carolina, and to a lesser extent Philadelphia, will be there in the end. The Panthers are better than the rush-less kitties they appeared to be against Seattle in the NFC title game. And the Eagles, plus a healthy Donovan McNabb and minus the T.O. carnival,  should return to prominence. Atlanta, the New York Giants, Tampa Bay and Minnesota all are legitimate dark-horse candidates to pull a surprise.

But the likely matchup for Super Bowl XLI will be New England versus Carolina, with the Patriots coming away triumphant.

The Patriots in next year’s Super Bowl? It has a familiar ring to it.

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