NEW YORK - The Kentucky Derby is more than three months away, yet it’s never too early to start sorting out the contenders for the world’s most popular horse race.

Start touting your choice now, keep convincing yourself you’ve got a winner and when the Derby field crosses the finish line at Churchill Downs early Saturday evening, May 6, you’re either a champ or a chuckle-head.

Now, if only First Samurai can follow Afleet Alex’s lead from a year ago, we’ll be in good shape.

Afleet Alex, you may recall, was a prominent 2-year-old who became extraordinary as a 3-year-old. Good ol’ Alex nearly won the Derby — third by a length to a 50-1 shot — before capturing the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.

First Samurai won his first four races, including the Hopeful and the Champagne, then finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in October. His 3-year-old debut is set for Feb. 4 in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park in Florida.

First Sumurai has near perfect 2-year-old season
Based on his near perfect 2-year-old season and his solid training under Frank Brothers, First Samurai starts his run for the roses as the No. 1 pick in the AP’s opening Top 10 list of Derby contenders.

Last year, our first top pick was Afleet Alex.

“Any young horse has to improve going from 2 to 3,” Brothers said recently from Florida. “He (First Samurai) is like the rest of them in that you expect him to mature, but the good ones improve and the ones that aren’t so good just stay the same.

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“Physically he’s a big, strong colt. It’s hard for me to tell, seeing him every day, but it looks like he’s grown some. We just have to keep hoping he continues to develop.”

A son of European champion Giant’s Causeway, First Samurai seems to be maturing well. Last year, the chestnut colt overcame a bad habit of lugging in while running in the stretch, then ran a credible third in the BC Juvenile behind Stevie Wonderboy and Henny Hughes.

Last Saturday, in his fourth timed workout since arriving in Florida, First Samurai breezed six furlongs in 1:14 with Donna Barton-Brothers (Frank’s wife) aboard.

“It was slower rather than faster, which is fine. I know he’s fast,” the trainer said. “This year he needs to show he can settle and keep on running.”

Brothers is not new to the Triple Crown trail. He won the Preakness and Belmont with Hansel in 1991, and also campaigned Pulpit, who won the Blue Grass Stakes before finishing fourth in the 1997 Derby.

A new rider will be aboard for the Hutcheson. Regular rider Jerry Bailey retires Jan. 28.

Stevie Wonderboy no slouch
Stevie Wonderboy is no slouch, either. Owned by hotel and TV magnate Merv Griffin, the colt named for singer Stevie Wonder finished second in the San Rafael at Santa Anita last Saturday in his 3-year-old debut. He ran well, though, and was not asked for his best in the stretch by jockey Garrett Gomez.

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“Stevie,” with three wins in five starts last year, starts at No. 2, with San Rafael winner Brother Derek at No. 3. Those two are set to meet again in the Santa Catalina on March 4.

Trainers Bob Baffert and Nick Zito, Triple Crown regulars, as well as Todd Pletcher, are loaded with talented 3-year-olds. Baffert has three Derby wins, Zito two, and Pletcher is looking for his first.

Among Baffert’s contenders are Bob and John, Enforcement, Point Determined, Point of Impact and Wanna Runner; Zito has Superfly, Fabled, Little Cliff and Hemingway’s Key; and Pletcher’s stable includes Bluegrass Cat, High Cotton, Keyed Entry and Saint Augustus.

The top-10 picks include:

• First Samurai (Frank Brothers, trainer; no rider): Season debut set for Hutcheson at Gulfstream on Feb. 4, went 4-for-4 before finishing third in BC Juvenile.
• Stevie Wonderboy (Doug O’Neill, Garrett Gomez): BC Juvenile winner’s star still shines despite San Rafael loss in 3-year-old debut, set to win Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male with three wins in five starts. Owned by hotel and TV magnate Merv Griffin.
• Brother Derek (Dan Hendricks, Alex Solis): San Rafael win over Stevie Wonderboy boosts stock in big way. Won three of five last year, including Norfolk and Hollywood Futurity.
• Bluegrass Cat (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez): Won Remsen at Aqueduct on Nov. 26, colt’s third straight win, one of many Pletcher Derby hopefuls.
• Bob and John (Bob Baffert, Victor Espinoza); Bay colt owned by Houston Texans honcho Bob McNair; third in Hollywood Futurity, his 3-year-old debut was Friday at Santa Anita.
• Private Vow (Steve Asmussen, Shaun Bridgmohan): Won Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 26 for fourth win in last five starts, lost rein early in BC Juvenile and finished 14th — a throwout race.
• Superfly (Nick Zito, Eibar Coa): Ran fifth in the BC Juvenile, finished on the board in first four starts, including win in Whirling Ash at Delaware Park on Sept. 17.
• Lawyer Ron (Bob Holthus, John McKee): Won third straight with 8¼-length win in Risen Star at Louisiana Downs. Was 1-for-8 before winning steak. Next race could be Southwest at Oaklawn on Feb. 20.
• Saint Augustus (Pletcher, Robby Albarado): Fifth in Risen Star on Jan. 14 after winning What a Pleasure Stakes at Calder.
• Achilles of Troy (Jennifer Pedersen, Alan Garcia): Won Count Fleet by 14 lengths at Aqueduct on Jan. 7, worked five furlongs in 1:01.45 at Big A on Thursday. Next race likely to be Whirlaway on Feb. 11.

Keep an eye on: A.P. Warrior, Fabled, Itsallaboutthechase, Menacing, Wanna Runner.