Early in the season, as Peyton Manning drove fantasy footballers to distraction by handing off, the NFL MVP looked like Steve Smith, the Carolina wide receiver, or San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson. Later, Seattle’s Shaun Alexander joined the mix.

Now?

For the third straight season, Manning is the favorite. No, he’s not close to last season’s record numbers and he could come up short of 4,000 yards for the first time since his rookie season in 1998.

But he’s the most important player on the NFL’s best team. And he still leads the league with a passer rating of 108.2, short of last year’s record of 121.2, but still good enough to be the ninth all-time.

The choice will be made after the regular season by 50 well-informed folks and things can still happen. But if Manning is the MVP, he would be only the second player to win the award three straight times, joining Brett Favre (1995-97). Both would have a shared award: Manning with Steve McNair in 2003 and Favre with Barry Sanders in 1997.

Again, it’s too early for definitive judgments. But not for some early thoughts.

MVP
Manning. Alexander, Smith, Tomlinson and Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer are there, but No. 2 might be one of the NFL’s most overlooked players, Tiki Barber of the Giants.

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Yeah, teammate Eli Manning makes magazine covers, because he’s a Manning and plays in New York. Still, other New York players are overlooked, notably Barber and Curtis Martin of the Jets, who is fourth on the career rushing list. With Eli demonstrating second-year shakiness, Barber has been a rock. He’s third in the NFL in rushing and leads in total yards from scrimmage at 1,749, six ahead of Tomlinson, who gets a lot more TV highlight time because he’s flashier.

For the sake of discussion, throw in a couple of defensive ends: Dwight Freeney of the Colts and Michael Strahan of the Giants.

One vote as of now:

1. Manning (Peyton, of course), 2. Barber, 3. Alexander, 4. Palmer, 5. Tomlinson.

Coach of the year
Normally this goes to someone who brings a team from nowhere into the playoffs. Rarely does it go to a coach whose team is supposed to be good — Bill Belichick won it in 2003, but that was after the Patriots’ one down year in a stretch that otherwise included three Super Bowl wins.

This year, the leader has to be Tony Dungy if the Colts go unbeaten. If they don’t, Dungy could lose votes for considering the Super Bowl more important.

Lovie Smith of the Bears and Marvin Lewis of the Bengals fall into the normal category of guys with teams who made big moves up. Chicago’s resurgence is a big surprise, Cincinnati’s is less so. They also fit another vote-getting category: coaches who improve a team quickly after taking over.

But there are veterans who deserve notice, including Tampa Bay’s Jon Gruden, Denver’s Mike Shanahan, and the Giants’ Tom Coughlin. Plus a guy named Belichick, who despite a spate of injuries and other problems has his team in position to at least try for a third straight Super Bowl victory.

The preliminary choices:

1. Dungy, 2. Smith, 3. Lewis, 4. Gruden, 5. Shanahan.